Mid-Scale Drivers of Variability in Dry Mixed-Conifer Forests of the Mogollon Rim, Arizona

The structure and composition of southwestern dry mixed-conifer forests have changed significantly, decreasing forest resiliency to uncharacteristic disturbances which also threaten ecosystem services. Restoration these can be informed by historical conditions; however, managers researchers still lack a full understanding how environmental factors influence conditions. We investigated contemporary variability in northern Arizona identified important drivers. utilized sample plots dendrochronological reconstruction modelling describe conditions 1879 2014, respectively. used correlogram analysis compare spatial autocorrelation average diameter, basal area tree density, structural equation modeling partition the causal pathways between structure, composition, suite reflecting climate, topography, soil. Historical (1879) reconstructed had significantly fewer trees, lower area, higher diameter than contemporarily (2014). Composition has shifted from ponderosa pine dominance towards more mixed-species composition. Historically, did not exhibit strong autocorrelation, but density were strongly autocorrelated. Environmental described little variation are for Managers utilize this increased tailor silvicultural prescriptions templates.